Thursday, February 1, 2007

The Elliott Wave Theory of Horror

The horror film genre is booming right now, as it does from time to time.

We've seen previous horror booms: the 1930s, for example, and the late 1960s to early 1970s.

Inevitably, the boom will crash, only to rise again like a mummy from the tomb.

But why?

What drives the boom and bust cycle in the horror genre?

Could it be tied to the stock market?

To social trends?

To general pessimism?

Robert Prechter thinks he has the answer.

It's called the Elliott Wave Principle, and it predicts not only stock market cycles, but social cycles as well.

According to the new field of socionomics, which is built on Elliott Wave theory, mass psychology rides predictable waves of optimism and pessimism, and these waves can be seen in outward phenomena such as the stock market, movie trends, women's fashions, presidential popularity, interest in political scandals, the rise of terrorism and warfare, etc.

Prechter believes that our economy is already in a bear market (despite the rise in the Dow), and says the horror boom is related to that. So is the Iraq war. And Bush's low poll numbers.

"All the popular, groundbreaking horror movies were produced in bear markets - Dracula, Frankenstein, King Kong, The Mummy, Dr Jeckyl and Mr Hyde, all those were produced from 1931 to 1933, two short years during which time the Dow Jones Industrial Average was plummeting," says Prechter in History's Hidden Engine.

"You didn't have a situation like that ... until the late 1960s and then you had Halloween, Night of the Living Dead and the Texas Chain Saw Massacre, and all of these groundbreaking horror movies that were popular and you don't see that sort of thing in bull markets."

The fact that some of the most internationally successful horror films of recent times (such as The Ring (Ringu) series) have been coming out of Japan would seem to back this up. Japan has been stuck in a psychologically wearing bout of deflation for many years, a situation which occurs when money's purchasing power strengthens, and the onerousness of debt rises. Prechter has said that he expects that the crash in stock markets will be accompanied by a period of global economic deflation. As this takes hold it will cause suffering and socio-political instability.

He believes that you can already see this in the movies being produced. Writing by email he says: "We are already in a roaring renaissance for cutting-edge horror movies. The theme in the '30s was monsters; in the '70s it was zombies and slashers; now it's torture: Saw I and II, Hostel, The Hills Have Eyes, The Devil's Rejects, Wolf Creek, etc. We are deep in a bear market psychologically, which also shows up in the President's low popularity. This is not unusual in bear market rallies, such as 1968 and now."

Read more about Elliott Wave Theory and the horror genre here.