We've seen previous horror booms: the 1930s, for example, and the late 1960s to early 1970s.
Inevitably, the boom will crash, only to rise again like a mummy from the tomb.
But why?
What drives the boom and bust cycle in the horror genre?
Could it be tied to the stock market?
To social trends?
To general pessimism?
Robert Prechter thinks he has the answer.
It's called the Elliott Wave Principle, and it predicts not only stock market cycles, but social cycles as well.
According to the new field of socionomics, which is built on Elliott Wave theory, mass psychology rides predictable waves of optimism and pessimism, and these waves can be seen in outward phenomena such as the stock market, movie trends, women's fashions, presidential popularity, interest in political scandals, the rise of terrorism and warfare, etc.
Prechter believes that our economy is already in a bear market (despite the rise in the Dow), and says the horror boom is related to that. So is the Iraq war. And Bush's low poll numbers.
"All the popular, groundbreaking horror movies were produced in bear markets - Dracula, Frankenstein, King Kong, The Mummy, Dr Jeckyl and Mr Hyde, all those were produced from 1931 to 1933, two short years during which time the Dow Jones Industrial Average was plummeting," says Prechter in History's Hidden Engine.
"You didn't have a situation like that ... until the late 1960s and then you had Halloween, Night of the Living Dead and the Texas Chain Saw Massacre, and all of these groundbreaking horror movies that were popular and you don't see that sort of thing in bull markets."
The fact that some of the most internationally successful horror films of recent times (such as The Ring (Ringu) series) have been coming out of Japan would seem to back this up. Japan has been stuck in a psychologically wearing bout of deflation for many years, a situation which occurs when money's purchasing power strengthens, and the onerousness of debt rises. Prechter has said that he expects that the crash in stock markets will be accompanied by a period of global economic deflation. As this takes hold it will cause suffering and socio-political instability.
He believes that you can already see this in the movies being produced. Writing by email he says: "We are already in a roaring renaissance for cutting-edge horror movies. The theme in the '30s was monsters; in the '70s it was zombies and slashers; now it's torture: Saw I and II, Hostel, The Hills Have Eyes, The Devil's Rejects, Wolf Creek, etc. We are deep in a bear market psychologically, which also shows up in the President's low popularity. This is not unusual in bear market rallies, such as 1968 and now."
Read more about Elliott Wave Theory and the horror genre here.
12 comments:
Most interesting theory. I've alway believed that everything is cyclical, but I'd never thought about this aspect of it.
Good post.
I love theories like this! I have a friend who developed one for the change from buying historical fiction to buying fantasy books. I think though, that good films and books can trump in the wrong sort of market.
Now that is fascinating. I love the way it links psychology to economics, a really interesting field. I used to do a lot of work with behavioural economics which has to do with how people make decisions and assess risk, how people generalise etc etc. I've bookmarked this post. I definitely want to read it again and perhaps use it as inspiration for a post on my blog. I think my readers might find it interesting!
Interesting post. The focus on torture in horror movies today is definitely out there. Something I can't understand. While I don't like being frightened in a film, I'd rather be frightened than sickened! Get the remake of Texas Chainsaw Massacre as far away from me as possible!
I'm surprised a bit by the correlation between a bear market and horror - I would have thought that during financial hard times people would want comedy and fantasy. Maybe that's just me :)
(and I'm with you jen.nifer - give me spooks and suspense, but gore just turns my stomach.)
That's interesting. It makes sense...methinks I'll be doing research on this theory.
Wow, that's an insane theory. I thought I heard recently that not too many great movies aren't being made these days because people simply don't go to the theatre as much (hello, it costs $20 at least for a couple!). So people don't go because it's too expensive, the movie theatres aren't making money because people aren't coming, so they jack the prices up even more and so on.
I think this may be part of the reason why more original movies are coming out. Also maybe because it seems like every movie's already been made, so that could really stimulate some screenwriters' creativity.
Interesting post. We all hear of trends in the popularity of specific genres. Horror would obviously be included in that, but I never considered the deep cause and or effect of "spooky" on society.
Although I personally wish the trend would evolve back to Frankenstein type BOOs, I think I understand the theory...sort of.
Basically: As long as the world thinks it's in the pooper, they want the poop scared out of them. Right?
Renee'
http://reneebarnes.bravejournal.com/
That's definitely an interesting cyclical theory, and it has bearing on a lot of other trends and issues as well. Thanks for the link-- I'll be looking into this further.
Julia
www.temlynwriting.com/blog
Just tell where we're at in the next cycle and I can retire! Things definitely come and go, pinning down a regular cycle could be useful.
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